Those of us who follow local politics closely are getting giddy over the growing field of candidates wanting to be Fresno's 24th mayor. Voters, unless they have a personal connection to the candidates, aren't paying much attention.
They probably have a much better perspective on a campaign that officially doesn't begin until next year.

While the political insiders are already predicting the winner and handicapping who'll get the powerful city manager's job in the next administration, voters don't much care right now. Thanksgiving is coming, Christmas is right behind it. There's worry over gasoline prices, and whether the economy is going to tank.

The mayor's race in Fresno is the last thing voters are thinking about if they're thinking about politics at all.

Besides, there'll be a presidential primary election four months before the June primary for mayor. They might be talking about Hillary, Barack, Rudy and Mitt, but they're surely not talking about Henry, Ashley and Jerry.

Field may still grow

Last week in Fresno, two major candidates -- City Council President Henry T. Perea and Ashley Swearengin, chief executive officer of the Regional Jobs Initiative -- announced their candidacies. They joined Council Members Jerry Duncan and Mike Dages, and former Council Member Tom Boyajian in the race to succeed Mayor Alan Autry. The field could still grow, with Deputy Mayor Jeff Eben saying he soon may become a candidate.

The political consultants, government leaders and the media went ga ga over all the election maneuvering. The rest of Fresno went about their business.

So why all the maneuvering for an office that isn't even open to filing official nomination papers for until February? Tom Holyoke, an assistant professor of political science at Fresno State, said it's part of a ritual that candidates feel they must perform to show they are serious about their intentions.

"This is just political theater for political junkies," said Holyoke. "Most of the voters probably don't even know that Autry is leaving office after next year. Voters usually don't tune into elections until a couple of weeks before the election happens."

Holyoke said voters will begin taking notice of the mayoral campaign after California's presidential primary in February. "The candidates right now are signaling to each other that they are in the race, they are building networks and they are getting political supporters locked up."

The candidates begin this campaign dance by calling news conferences and doing other things that their handlers say will position them for the June primary. With this crowded field, the goal for the candidates is to get into the November runoff. That means they have to finish either first or second in the June balloting.

Right now, the political insiders say Duncan, Perea and Swearengin are in the first tier of candidates. Most believe the runoff in November will be between two of the three.

Looking to gain an edge

That's part of the reason the candidates are working so hard at a time when the voters aren't paying attention. Their goal is to get an edge on their opponents.

In a crowded primary, a handful of votes may be the difference in whether one of them gets into the runoff or ends up as an also-ran figuring out how to pay off campaign loans.

So on Wednesday, Swearengin gathered up her supporters for a big news conference in downtown Fresno to kick off her campaign. Perea countered with an Internet announcement on his Web site in an attempt to show he's a 21st century candidate. Duncan announced two months ago surrounded by his backers.

This process does give us some added information if a City Council member begins voting a different way or a candidate from the business sector all of a sudden starts speaking to every service club in town. They're probably positioning themselves for their upcoming campaigns.

Voters can lie low. They will begin hearing from the candidates early next year, as they launch their political advertising in what is expected to be a very expensive campaign for mayor.

But right now, the voters are worried about the holidays and the economy. They'll get around to the mayoral election soon enough.

Jim Boren is The Fresno Bee’s editorial page editor. His column appears Sundays. E-mail him at jboren@fresnobee.com or write him at 1626 E St., Fresno 93786.

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